![]() ![]() He acknowledged that both DeSantis and Scott did well at reaching out to Hispanic voters - a possible struggle for Trump in two years if he keeps doubling down on fear of immigrants and revoking birthright citizenship. “Where DeSantis and Scott did well were places that Obama did pretty respectably in 20,” said Schale, who helped lead the former president’s successful efforts in Florida. Senate - could be headed for a recount, however, a reminder of the 2000 presidential race that underlines how key the state remains as a battleground.įlorida Democratic strategist Steve Schale argued that even if Democrats ultimately aren’t victorious in their two statewide contests, the fundamentals of the state haven’t changed - it’s still a very evenly divided state that is still up for grabs in two years, though Democrats still have work to do. “The fact that Republicans won both races there when Democrats were amply funded and felt like they had a ticket that matched their electorate is a pretty big deal.”īoth Florida contests - one for governor, one for the U.S. “There is no Republican winning coalition that doesn’t include Florida - you can’t make the math work,” said GOP strategist Brad Todd. Both Republicans and Democrats know the importance of winning the state - no GOP nominee has won the presidency without also winning Florida in almost a century. But they may be feeling less confident in some other key states where Democrats clawed back this week.įlorida is the most critical swing state in the country. As the president and his political advisers map out a strategy to win re-election in 2020, Ohio and Florida especially are must-win states. The outcomes of some of those races are still up in the air. “So I’m really happy with - not only the way it came out, but the response to me as your president.” “When you look at the races that we won in Florida, which we weren’t expected to win, and Georgia, which we weren’t expected to win, and Ohio, which we weren’t expected to win, and won - I mean, you look at some of them, the number of votes that we got is incredible,” Trump said. The number of new faces expected in the next Congress is indicative of the change we can expect as we move toward a period of divided government.President Trump claimed some personal victories in the 2018 midterm results, and as he ticked them off at a news conference on Wednesday he might as well have been walking through the Electoral College map for 2020. ![]() In all, 104 members won’t return to the House in January, including members who lost re-election bids, but also people who left for any other reason, including retirement, resigning before their term was up and being appointed to another office 1992 saw the most turnover, when 115 members left. As Geoffrey Skelley wrote, the two-year congressional term ending in 2018 had the third-highest rate of turnover since 1974. The 116th Congress will have a large freshman class. There will be a lot of new faces in the House ![]() That was the biggest change from the average of any state. In Georgia, where a competitive gubernatorial race took place between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp, an estimated 55 percent of eligible voters exercised their right to vote, which is about 21 points higher than the state’s 1982-2014 average. This year, 23 states had double-digit percentage-point increases in voter turnout compared with their 1982-2014 midterm election average. 1Īs you can see in the maps below, states generally experienced higher voter turnout this year, compared with previous years. At least, that was the case from 1982 until this year, when an estimated 49 percent of the nation’s voting-eligible population (about 116 million people) cast a ballot, according to a preliminary analysis by the U.S. On average, roughly 40 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot in a midterm. Midterm elections aren’t usually known for high levels of voter turnout. But if the Democratic pickup of 38 seats in the House holds true, that number will be even larger than in 2006 - the last time Democrats regained the House from Republicans, acquiring 32 seats. ![]() The chambers have moved in opposite directions 10 times since 1926, and what we’re seeing in 2018 is largely reflective of just how tough the Senate map was for Democrats. The chambers “swung” in opposite directions, as Democrats gained seats in the House (they’re on track for a net gain of 38 by our estimates) and lost seats in the Senate (a net of one seat at the moment, but that number could change after the Florida race is decided and Mississippi holds its runoff). This midterm election saw an unusual trend, though it wasn’t unprecedented. ![]()
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